Thursday, June 18, 2009

Even the BBC shows a glimmer of understanding of the power struggle in Iran.

This is from the BBC. This should be contrasted with CNN in its Iran 101 a supposed intro lecture on what is happening. CNN does not even mention the power struggle between Khameni and Rafsanjani and does not even have a profile of Rafsanjani as if he is of no importance! As this article points out Rafsanjani is the head of the Assembly of Experts who elect, surpervise and can theoretically dismiss the Supreme Leader. I do not even see this group mentioned in the CNN coverage. I didn't look at Fox News if anyone knows if they have done a better job let me know! The United States would no doubt like Rafsanjani to win out. He is corrupt, rich, and for accomodation with the West if it will make him even richer and more powerful! Obama is rightly being very subdued in his reactions although the State Dept. asked Twitter not to shut down for maintenance in order that protesters could continue using it. Of course the standard refrain in the western media is that Ahmadinejad stole the election rather than that Mousavi having lost is now trying to steal it through demonstrations and his ability to rally large numbers of people, at least in Tehran.

Deep rivalry
Meanwhile, a separate power play is going on at the top of the political system.

Former President Rafsanjani is backing the opposition
Ayatollah Khamenei has staked his political life on his unequivocal support for President Ahmadinejad's re-election victory.
He has many cards in his hand. He is the supreme commander of the armed forces. He is also loyally supported by the Guardian Council, which is reviewing the election result. Until now , no-one ever dared question his authority - at least openly.
But on the other side is former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been backing the opposition campaigns.
As the election began, it became clear he wanted revenge against President Ahmadinejad, who beat him in the presidential election four years ago.
And there is probably a deeper rivalry with the supreme leader himself, whom Mr Rafsanjani helped to power when he succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.
The rivalry really erupted when President Ahmadinejad accused Mr Rafsanjani's family of corruption during one of the televised presidential debates.
They may be arguing over a disputed election. But they are really arguing over the future of the country. A momentous, titanic struggle, whose outcome no-one can predict
It is an accusation many Iranians might suspect is true, but the manner in which it was made caused outrage.
Mr Rafsanjani wrote an unprecedented letter to the supreme leader, calling him to act, and issuing a remarkable threat.
If nothing was done, "the volcanos fed inside burning chests will appear in society, as exemplified by gatherings we have seen in streets, squares and universities".
The flames, Mr Rafsanjani warned, would spread "through the elections and beyond".
Mr Rafsanjani has some powerful tools.
He heads the Assembly of Experts, the body of clerics in charge of electing, supervising and dismissing the supreme leader.
For them to take action would indeed be unprecedented. But Mr Rafsanjani recently won re-election with a big majority. And Ayatollah Khamenei has many enemies amongst the clerical establishment.
Mr Rafsanjani also heads the Expediency Council, which mediates on disputes between other organs of government. Not to mention his almost legendary wealth.
Do not underestimate the fervour of supporters on both sides.
There may be government supporters encouraged or bussed to demonstrations, but there are many who also genuinely adore Mr Ahmadinejad.
And for the opposition, the disputed election has unleashed years of frustration over a system that prevents them from meeting their aspirations.
They may be arguing over a disputed election. But they are really arguing over the future of the country. A momentous, titanic struggle, whose outcome no-one can predict.

No comments:

US will bank Tik Tok unless it sells off its US operations

  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said during a CNBC interview that the Trump administration has decided that the Chinese internet app ...