Saturday, June 2, 2012

Syriza jumps into lead in Greek polls



There are still more than two weeks left before the June 17 Greek vote but public opinion is trending back in favor of Syriza the largest anti-austerity party that came in second during the last elections.

The poll published by Kathimerini shows that Syriza has 31.5 per cent of the vote a gain of 1.5 per cent over a week. Support for the first place finisher last time New Democracy is at 25.5 per cent, little changed over the week. The Socialist Party PASOK that together with New Democracy support the austerity package has decline 2 per cent to 13.5.

The Democratic Left had 7.5 per cent and Independent Greeks 5.5. The Communist Party (KKE) also had 5.5 per cent The right wing Golden Dawn had 4.5 per cent.

Seat projection on the basis of the percentages would give Syriza 134 seats. Presumably this includes the 50 seats for coming first. New Democracy would obtain 68 seats. PASOK 36. The Democracit Left would obtain 20 and the Communist 15.

The same poll surprisingly shows that 58 per cent of Greeks think that New Democracy will win and only 34 per cent see the left as winning. The leader of the Democratic Left is far more popular than the leader of Styriza Alexis Tsipras.

If the seat projections are correct then Syriza could gain a majority in coalition with the Democratic Left. The Communist Party so far has ruled out joining a coalition.

Earlier polls indicated that New Democracy could win. If Styriza wins the austerity deal will be repudiated and Syriza demands renegotiation. Until the actual election happens markets will no doubt remain volatile. Many analysts think that Greece dropping the Euro is most likely. For more see this article.

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